can electric cars and an expanding global economy power the next commodity supercycle? - small lithium ion battery

by:MERITSUN     2019-11-22
can electric cars and an expanding global economy power the next commodity supercycle?  -  small lithium ion battery
Mining executive Russell Hallbauer is very excited about the components inside the electric vehicle.
Chief executive of Vancouver-
Headquartered in tasiko Mining Co. , Ltd.
It is possible to describe in detail the length and thickness of the solid copper bus that transmits power from each Tesla's lithium-ion battery to its wheel motor.
"This piece of copper weighs about 50 pounds," he said . "
The enthusiasm for electric cars in Halbauer is worth it.
According to Morningstar's forecast, the market for such cars is expected to grow from 11 million in 2025 to 330,000 in 2015, and copper miners like Taseko expect this to generate a lot of demand for copper buses.
Not only that, he expects more copper to be needed to build the infrastructure
New power lines, electric vehicle charging stations and power stations-
To accommodate all electric cars driving on the street.
Besides enjoying the ramp-
In electric vehicles, economists expect miners of base metals such as aluminum, copper, nickel and zinc to benefit as the world's major economies grow for the first time since 2008, economists expect, they will do so in at least the next two years.
"In the global macro context, for the first time since the outbreak of the financial crisis, we have seen that all major developed countries and emerging market economies are either growing or accelerating growth, rory Johnston, commodity economist at scotiabank, talked about the prospects for metals in 2018.
Countries in North America, South America and Europe are expected to grow next year, while a recent report by the Bank of Scotland calls a simultaneous global recovery.
"With the increase in manufacturing activity, this brings a lot of disadvantages to the base metal, especially in some advanced manufacturing centers where the base metal uses more intensive, such as consumer electronics," Johnston said.
Taseko is also excited about the projected global recovery.
"We have been expecting supply to keep up with demand for years.
So the next 18 to 24 months will be very critical for us, "says hallebauer.
But he is wary of describing these bullish powers as commodity supercycles.
When asked, he said: "The future looks very bright.
"The last commodity supercycle between the 1990 s and 2008 led to double
Base metal prices, including copper, are rising in digital form every year.
However, at this point, most analysts predict that price increases in commodity categories will be more moderate in the next two years, and forecasters will also have differences, and some metals such as aluminum will be "cloudy"
However, base metal miners are generally optimistic.
After years of downturn, base metal prices rebounded in the second half of 2017, and analysts now expect most base metal prices to continue to rise until 2018. Performance is superior to commodities such as iron ore and precious metals such as gold and silver, because base metals are used for high
Value manufacturing.
"This year is the story of two commodity markets, with prices falling in the first half and prices rebounding in the second year," said Francisco Blanche, head of commodities at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, on a note. “The second-
The semi-rebound provided 2018 momentum, especially in the context of stronger global growth and looser financial environment.
"The increase in the manufacturing of electric vehicles and consumer electronics is also expected to lead to further increases in metal prices such as lithium and cobalt, both of which are used to produce lithium-ion batteries in smartphones, electric cars and computers.
Martin Fraenkel, president of Standard & Poor's global platform, believes that lithium and cobalt are commodity themes that need attention in 2018, given the expected popularity of electric vehicles.
"The composition of lithium ion batteries varies from manufacturer to use
Especially with regard to the cathode, the proportion of metals such as cobalt, nickel, manganese and aluminum is different, "he said in a recent report.
"Prices of many related metals and minerals have risen strongly over the past year --
With the price of cobalt rising nearly 2.
Five times, lithium carbonate has risen sharply.
"But while the dual power of electric vehicles/electronic manufacturing and global economic growth will help to drive demand for base metals, the supply of goods needed to meet that demand has not kept pace, says Hallbauer.
He said: "You don't see a lot of mines on the drawings, and you are not ready to go . " He added that years of low prices have hurt mining companies and they need to repair their balance sheets before investing in new projects.
Johnston of Scotiabank said the result was a decline in base metal stocks.
He expects that the supply deficit in the nickel and zinc markets in particular will help push the prices of these metals up.
Colin Hamilton, capital market analyst at BMO, said the supply deficits had not yet stimulated mining companies to increase production.
"Most of them are self-disciplined.
You don't see them driving growth, and you don't see someone pushing the construction of new projects.
Investors or boards, frankly, don't want them to do the same . "
"We still see no response from the supply side to the margin prompt.
London, for example-
Rio Tinto-based mining giants surprised analysts by announcing far below-expected guidance on copper production at an investor day launch in early December.
China's blue sky environmental policy also limits the supply of base metals, which limits the country's producers to increase production of aluminum and steel, Hamilton said.
"China's environmental restrictions on the supply of base metals are causing some problems --
This is the theme for most of the year, and I think it's a theme that only speeds up to 2018, "he said.
The miners will eventually react to the price increase, but he said many people will remain cautious before mining new mines.
"You will see a supply response, but that won't be the case until those years when miners are in good financial condition and make up for what they haven't made up for," he said . ".
"You have to make some money.
"Financial Postgmorgan @ nationalpost.
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