As battery prices drop, will electric cars finally catch on? - lithium battery price
At present, Americans do not go to dealers to buy electric cars. The plug-
Nissan's Leaf has a single mileage of 75 miles, and its sales have fallen sharply since June 2011.
Chevrolet's Volt, which contains an electric horse and a back-
The rising gasoline engine has been slightly better, but only 8,817 units were sold in the first half of this year.
A big reason for the downturn in sales is cost.
Electric cars and plug-in cars
In hybrid cars, they promise to save a lot of money on the pump, but they also have a high initial price.
The starting price for Nissan Leaf is $36,050, while the starting price for Volt is $39,995 (
Although buyers of both vehicles are eligible for a $7,500 federal tax credit).
This is a big upfront fund.
According to the Energy Information Administration, even if the price of gasoline is twice that of $6 a gallon, it is difficult for drivers to recover these additional costs.
It still makes more sense to buy a hybrid like Toyota Prius or efficient gasolinePower car.
The biggest reason electric cars are still so expensive is batteries.
It's big, bulky and expensive.
Ford CEO Alan Mulally recently revealed that all-
Ford Fox electric cars cost between $12,000 and $15,000.
This means that it makes uproughly-
Third of the cost of the vehicle.
"So you can see," Mulally told an audience in April, "Why is economics like this.
"But what if the economy of the car's batteries has changed dramatically?
The latest research by McKinsey analysts shows that the price of lithium
The ion battery could drop twice. thirds by 2020.
Not $600 per kilowatt.
Today, the price of the battery is only $200/kWh in 2020 and $150/kWh in 2025.
The report believes that this will subvert the entire automotive industry.
This is a bold prediction.
Many analysts, including the Department of Energy or the EPAK research company, expect battery prices to only slow down without any breakthrough technological breakthroughs.
But the McKinsey report, written by Russell Hensley, John Newman and Matt Rogers, looks closely at three factors that they expect to have a strong impact.
With more and more batteries being put into production in new factories, economies of scale will press down prices.
Therefore, the reduction in component costs and the smaller technological advances in cathode and electrolyte will increase the capacity of the battery.
So what does this mean for electric vehicles?
The author provides a useful chart to let us know when electric cars and plugs are
Hybrid cars will compete with regular internal combustion engines.
If gas prices are high enough
The battery is cheap enough, so it makes more sense to buy an electric car by one person.
Now, we are at a time when the cost of battery per kilowatt hour is about $500 to $600, and the price of natural gas hovers around $3. 50.
It's a purple square on it.
This means that for most people who are worried about the price of natural gas, it makes sense to buy fuel.
An efficient vehicle or hybrid like Prius. (
That's exactly what we saw-
Sales in both companies are soaring. )
But if the price of the battery drops to $250 per kilowatt hour, as McKinsey's researchers expect, electric vehicles suddenly become very economically significant over the next decade, even if the price of natural gas reaches its current level.
The economy has changed dramatically.
McKinsey's authors say this is "one of the biggest disruptions facing the transportation, power and oil industries over the next decade or more.
"It's true that electric cars may not be as fast as some enthusiasts want, and there may be other reasons for this --
There are many, for example-
The phenomenon of "mileage anxiety" is discussed, and before charging, drivers do not want to be limited to just 75 miles, even if most of us do not have a further car every day than this.
But for now, the battery economy seems to be a big thing that is holding back the development of electric vehicles.
If battery prices fall as quickly as McKinsey's authors say, then all this can change in the short term. r.