Energy Storage and the Edison Blowback: A Lesson for Investors - valve regulated lead acid battery

Last week, I stumbled upon a disturbing quote from Thomas Edison in February 1883.
When I overcame nausea and started looking at the business dynamics of the day, several similarities between 1883 and 2010 were clearly visible, providing a useful target lesson for investors.
Edison invented the light bulb in 1879 and set up the first investor
Power company in 1882.
In September of that year, Pearl Street Station began to operate. Edison was most concerned about improving the service reliability of 85 lights in lower Manhattan.
Battery Backup is a logical solution, but the technology at the time was not able to meet the needs of the power plant.
The battery manufacturers promised more than they could, and the result was what I called Edison's repenting phenomenon, a high level of disappointment and anger
Personal data customers who have said something very bad to the media.
Edison's aversion to the battery industry eventually led him to develop a nickel-
1901 iron battery
It was not until the first generation of electric vehicles flooded the ocean of cheap and abundant gasoline that it became the preferred battery for vehicle transportation.
While I have found no indication that Edison mourned the death of an electric vehicle while the internal combustion engine established its superior economy, flexibility and usefulness, it is reported that he had an interest in nickel-
Iron lost to lead.
Acid is the preferred chemical for beginners.
After a long and legendary history,S.
Nickel factory
The iron battery closed on 1975.
If the cost is different, there may be different developments in our power infrastructure and transportation systems.
In the Edison era, there was already an effective storage.
But he can't solve this problem. we have to find a solution.
Thirty years later, cost-
Effective large-scale energy storage remains an attractive but difficult goal to achieve.
Today, as we stand at the dawn of the era of clean technology,
Scale energy storage is once again seen as a key support technology for wind and solar power generation, smart grids, efficient transportation and countless other applications.
Battery makers are once again focused on overcoming the technical barriers that have plagued researchers for more than a century.
With the instant of technological progress and the vision of great business potential, imagination becomes crazy again.
Battery developers seem to once again ignore the cost and complexity of developing large-scale energy storage solutions and commit to offering services that are beyond their capabilities.
I think Mark Twain is right to joke that "history will not repeat itself, but it does rhyme.
"There were two common batteries before the 1970 s.
Rechargeable lead
When the dry battery is used for flashlights, toys and transistor radios, the acid battery does the heavy work of starting the car and providing a backup power supply.
Valve Adjustment leadacid [VRLA]
The battery was invented in the medium term.
And quickly become the preferred technology.
They work very well, leading R & D spending
The acid battery collapsed.
At the same time, new rechargeable battery chemicals, including nickel-cadmium, nickel-metal hydrogenation and lithium ion, appeared on the spot.
As advanced batteries have great potential in portable electronics, R & D spending on these chemicals has soared, especially in Asia where electronics are manufactured.
This trend continues at the turn of the millennium because of the lead
Acid batteries are good enough for the work they need to do, while advanced batteries for portable electronics do not.
Over the past decade, a new energy has emerged as people begin to deal with the huge amount of energy they waste.
Today, we are witnessing a huge shift in energy storage because the technologies we used in the past were not cheap enough, durable enough, big enough or strong enough to meet the future needs of energy conservation.
In response to this market dynamics, companies across the energy storage industry have: the challenge is a classic conflict between technology and the economy.
Cheap chemicals like lead
Acid is not durable enough to meet the storage needs of durable chemicals such as energy saving future and lithium
Ions are not cheap enough.
There is an urgent need for disruptive innovation to fill this gap.
The question with the dollar is which result is more likely: If history is a guide, then the safer bet is that cheaper technology will progress faster.
The following chart is based on the work of Clayton kristenson, showing how disruptive technologies have emerged, developed and matured.
When you consider the natural evolution of disruptive technologies, 25-
One-year period from 1975 to 2000
Lithium-suspension of acid research and development
Ion R & D is moving forward at an extremely fast pace and taking into account the huge differences in raw material demand and natural resource availability, the conclusion is that
If it is not convincing, it is convincing to fill the gap better with acid.
We live in an era of distorted expectations due to generally recognized cost demands --Effective big
Scale energy storage. Lithium-
There is no doubt that the ion battery technology will progress, but it will progress slower than expected, and with the inevitable delay, the accumulation of cost overruns and disappointment, Edison's other counterattackLead-
Acid battery technology will also progress, but this progress will be an unexpected good news for the public with low expectations for the technology.
Over time, the gradual improvement of the two technologies will cover the middle, and the relative valuation will tend to be balanced.
Great investors will avoid the market and focus on undervalued companies with bright future prospects.
It is also not cost-effective to pay high-priced followers too early.
With the revolution in clean technology, I believe that every company that brings costs
Provide effective storage solutions for the market.
However, the biggest surprise will come from the leading edge --
Including Enersys (ENS)
Exide technology (XIDE)
C & D technology (CHP)
And Axion Power International (AXPW. OB).
Disclosure: The author is a former director of Axion Power International (AXPW. OB)
And hold a large number of long-term positions in its common stock.
Its common stock