Expensive batteries are holding back electric cars. Can that change? - lifepo4 battery price
A big reason for the slow development of electric vehicles is that batteries are still very expensive --
Usually between $12,000 and $15,000, or one-
The price of the third vehicle-
And only a limited range can be provided.
So will these batteries get better?
This is a big problem.
Some analysts are deeply skeptical about rapid or simple improvements.
In the latest issue of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Fred Schlacter published an article on why batteries are fundamentally different from things like mobile phones or computers: there is now one
"The battery has no Moore's law, so it's a pessimistic situation," Schlacter said.
Unless we make a major breakthrough in battery chemistry, the battery will continue to be a serious limitation for electric vehicles.
But is Schlacter too pessimistic?
On Twitter, Ramez Naam pointed out to me that a 2009 study found lithium
Over the past 20 years, ion batteries have made some significant progress as energy density increases and prices drop.
* (That is, the speed of improvement seems to slow down towards the end): At the same time, really optimistic analysts will think that even incremental adjustments will yield huge results.
So maybe Moore's law is unnecessary. style gains.
Analysis of McKinsey's a2016
For example, predict the price of lithium-
The ion battery could drop twice.
As at 2020, approximately $200 per kilowatthour.
McKinsey's report argues that all of this requires slow and stable improvement: Economies of scale will press down prices as new factories put into production to produce more and more batteries.
Therefore, the reduction in component costs and the smaller technological advances in cathode and electrolyte will increase the capacity of the battery.
If the price of the battery really falls below the mark of $250/kWh, as McKinsey's researchers expect, in the next decade, then electric cars will become more financially reasonable even if the price of natural gas reaches its current level.
Sharp changes in the economy: This chart summarizes the basics: the overall cost of the battery will largely determine the popularity of electric vehicles.
But the more difficult question is, big, long.
The breakthrough in chemicals is the only thing that will allow us to achieve our goals, or whether small steps can do that. -----
* Note: Some of the things pointed out by reviewer perkinisms are worth clarifying --
Improvement rate of lithium-
The energy density of ion batteries is largely linear, while the increase in computer processing power is exponential.
The battery is not improved so fast.