Tesla's First Decade Of Battery Pack Progress - Much Ado About Nothing - lithium ion battery pack

This slide highlighting past and future battery energy density growth is the cornerstone of Tesla (TSLA) cto j. B.
Straw Bell's speech for ten yearsLast fall Mr.
InsideEVs quoted Straubel as saying: "These batteries are steadily improving every year-perhaps the energy density has increased by about 5%, and their ability to store energy under a given mass is also improving.
This may be one of the key indicators we are worried about.
When we went from sports cars to Model S, they improved about 40%, and when we designed Model 3, they improved about 30%.
This improvement continues every year in the context.
"That's enough for me to wonder God Bless America.
Unfortunately, it is the battery BS because the boost in pack level performance is the mouse nut.
This is just another real-world example of Thomas Edison's great truth, "just as a person starts to study a secondary battery, it shows his potential ability to lie.
"Discussion on cell horizontal energy density measured in Watt
Hours per liter measured in watts and battery level specific energy
Hours per kilogram, fun for battery geeks, but no point in the real world because of lithium
The ion battery cannot do any useful work until it is built into a complete battery pack that can power the vehicle or store the power of the solar panel.
At the end of the day, the level of packaging is the only important indicator than energy.
It's hard to find reliable data about the level of packaging than energy, but X-
The document tells us that "The truth is there" if we are willing to ask the right questions and do some careful research ".
It seems to me that the pack level specific energy data points recorded below are almost unquestionable.
When I plug these authoritative values into Tesla 10-
Specific energy history, the result is not similar to Mr.
Straubel's chart or his statement about the growth of energy density at a sustained rate.
These things may be true at the cellular level, but this may not be the case at the packaging level.
The original Model S battery pack provides a 25.
8% better than sports cars. Likewise.
The 2017 Model S battery pack provides 8.
9% higher than the original.
However, the X-and 3-type battery packs are lower than the original S-type battery pack and lower than the energy.
The bottom line is lithium-
Ion battery technology is moving forward at a slow rate.
While this chart is old, it highlights a shocking difference between technological advances in the electronics industry and technological advances in the battery industry.
Between 1990 and 2003, the wireless transmission speed is increased by 30 X, and the disk capacity is increased by 3, 000x.
During the same period, with the introduction of lithium, the energy density of the battery increased by 4 timesion in the mid-
In his 90 s, basically flat
Line up for the next ten years.
If you update the chart to include technological advances since 2003, the performance boost for electronics will be several additional orders of magnitude, while the energy density boost for the battery is still within the red oval.
I think there is a fatal flaw in Tesla's business model, and its inherent investment value is zero.
I will discuss other issues in the coming weeks and months.
While I can't encourage anyone to short Tesla's stock, I believe
Hedging long positions is the epitome of stupidity.
Benjamin Graham, the father of value investment, once explained that in the short term, the market is like a counting machine, counting which companies are popular and which companies are not.
But in the long run, the market is like a weighing machine that evaluates the company's substance.
Tesla is clearly a voting stock, and will remain unreasonably valuable until the market starts to operate like a weighing machine.
Since I expect Tesla's stock to crash in a $30 deal, I don't know when this will happen.
However, when the music stops, it will soon become very ugly.
Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any of the stocks mentioned and no plans to start any positions in the next 72 hours.
This article was written by myself and expressed my views.
I have not received compensation (except for Seeking Alpha ).
I have no business relationship with any stock company mentioned in this article.