why tesla batteries are cheap enough to prevent new power plants - home battery pack

Last year, analysts hired by oncorelecric delivery are working on the costs and benefits of installing huge batteries on oncorgrid grid, Texas.
They calculate that if oncorcan buys a battery for $350 per kWh, the benefits will exceed the cost --or less.
That's the rest time. even point.
The cheapest utility at the time-
Analysts pointed out that the cost of battery size is twice that of the original, and the cost of some batteries is almost ten times that of the original.
But prices are falling, and analysts predict the price of batteries could reach $350 in 2020.
They don't have to wait that long. Utility of Tesla
Late Thursday night, scalePowerpackbattery will be on sale for $250/kWh.
Musk, Tesla's product architect, said: "There is nothing at these prices . ".
Earlier Thursday evening, I was covering the Northwestern University debate on the future of nuclear power, in which nuclear critic Arnie Gundersen predicted new uses for Tesla
The scale battery will be new-
Build nuclear power plants out of date.
He predicted that the battery would solve the reliability problem of intermittent solar and wind energy for 24-hour output.
Gundersen predicted the cost of utilities
The scale battery will drop to 2 cents per kilometer, which will provide cheaper renewable energy and reliable storage than the new nuclear power plant in the next few years. (
The nuclear power plant currently under construction will provide the estimated cost of electricity. ¢19 per kWh).
Focus on utilities-
We will soon learn to call it the scale battery of Powerpack, but after Musk's announcement, the focus of most media attention is on the Powerwall of home batteries, with higher prices per kWh, the benefits of poisoning are also less.
Some observers noticed the two batteries.
Commenting on Tesla's new battery range, author Ramez Naam wrote: "Tesla battery is better than I thought . ".
"It is profoundly disruptive in terms of utility scale.
"At Tesla's price, utility companies --
The performance of the scale battery is likely to exceed 2 cents per kilowatt hour, which is the most important in the customer's electricity bill.
Capital costs of utilities
Scalebatteries may be offset by their benefits, according to a Texas study, and if deployed at the grid level, they can actually reduce electricity charges.
Even with the $100 battery model bidado, Texas analysts have concluded that storage arranged throughout the grid should lead to a slight drop in electricity bills for less typical consumers --
From $180 to $179 a month. 66.
This is not an amazing number if you want to save money, but if you expect new capital spending on batteries to increase your electricity bill, this is an amazing number.
"Considering the impact on electricity bills and the improvement of power grid reliability --
Analysts at the Brattle Group found: "consolidated storage, the overall benefit of the customer will be significantly more than the cost . ".
This is why, according to their research: 1.
Save the cost of electricity purchase.
During the peak period of the system, utilities that do not have enough storage space usually have to purchase electricity, and these purchases charge customers directly.
These charges are eliminated by the battery. 2.
Customer bills are offset from store merchant value.
Utilities will supply batteries to independent companies participating in the regional wholesale energy market, auction battery capacity and return most of the proceeds to customers by reducing bills. 3.
Power distribution interruption is avoided.
By preventing power outages, the battery can save about $10 a year for residential customers and an average of $700 a year for commercial customers. (
One example: SoCore, a Southern California-based Aidi Kids Company, is installing Tesla batteries in two cinemas in order to stay in operation when power goes off. )4.
Delay investment.
Typically, utility companies need enough power plants to serve their customers during peak hours rather than on average.
By using batteries to serve peak loads, they can invest in less power plants.
They can specifically avoid launching expensive "peaker plants" that are usually very fast
Start, but inefficientgas plants.
They can also build fewer peaker factories in the future.
By deploying batteries on the grid with the largest peak load, they can also delay investments in transmission and distribution infrastructure designed to serve the peak load. (
One example: Southern California Edison installed a battery in Orange, California.
, Found that it not only improves the reliability of the power grid, but also allows utilities to postpone the replacement of the circuit for 5 to 7 years).
"The combined value of these benefits exceeds storage costs and has a great advantage in the scope of the deployment level," the Texas study concluded . ".
Remember, let's say the battery costs $100 per kilowatt hour for bitzilla.
Tesla's Powerwall and other batteries for the home should have similar benefits, but not so powerful: "While individual customers are able to get backups --
The power advantage of storage, they are unlikely to monetize the larger grid directly
Electricity market benefits are extensive, wholesale.
"Tesla offers utilities --
Expand the battery in the 100kwh battery block from 500kWh to 10MWh.
Texas analysts recommend Oncore's power grid capacity up to 15 MWh.
The installation cost is uncertain, but the installation may be-
So it seems unlikely that the House will be close to the size of the home facility, which is reported to increase the cost of capital for Powerwall 17
A client of a utility company is 29%.
The Texas study may be unique to Texas, but the results are consistent with other findings.
A study by the Power Research Institute found the benefits of the power grid --
In almost all of the scenarios being checked, level storage exceeds the cost.
Practical pectsimilarresults.
Green Mountain Electric is one of the first utilities to provide Tesla's power wall to families, and it is also buying Tesla's power grid --Horizontal battery.
"We will also use the Tesla power grid --
We know that the scale system will also save costs for our customers, "GMP's company spokesman Dorothy schnu told me in an email.
Schnure can't say how big or small these promised savings will be: "We know there will be savings and are still evaluating what this might be, so I don't have your number yet
Tesla said in a press release last week that Southern California's Edisonas is a partner in the gridlevel storage.
A spokesperson for Southern California Edison told me by email: "We think there are some economic opportunities today, but with the decline in energy storage prices, we expect that economically viable projects will expand significantly.
"As prices fall, opportunities should come as the battery improves.
Part of Gundersen's estimate is based on improvements in cycling
Number of times the battery can run out and charge-
It is well known that thatTesla is being developed and has been present in other batteries.
Analysts usually think that the battery can be recycled 1,000 times a day.
Xalt Energy, Michigan, sells lithium-
It says it can cycle ion batteries from 4,000 to 8,000 times. Some lithium-
The ion battery used to back up the data server is designed to cycle 10 000 times.
These achievements are likely to be surpassed by the next generation of batteries soon.
More cycles mean longer battery life and lower cost per kWh.
"Neither solar nor battery is 'fuel, 'but technology," Gundersen said . ".
"The cost of fuel extraction continues to rise, while the cost of technology continues to fall.
My PhD contacts at battery believe that there are indeed 2 cents in the lab and business space.
This is all about the number of cycles that can be taken out of the battery.
"We still don't know what bike improvements Tesla has bundled in the Powerpack, if any, and Tesla hasn't responded to a request for comment.
Ramez Naam believes that Gundersen's optimism is 2 points (
For Powerpack)
My Forbes colleague Chris Heyman's pessimism
For Powerwall)
Is the abnormal value within the possible range of Tesla battery power costs.
If utilities get the same 10-
He told me via Twitter about Tesla's one-year warranty for home customers, and Naam estimates that the cost per kilowatt-hour Powerpack will be 7 cents.
Even at two prices, he said
Levelbatteries now offers a practical return on investment: "At such a high price, the battery brings a positive return on investment, which surprises a lot of people.
"This means that the battery of the Windmill may be cheaper than the battery of the nuclear power plant, and the battery of the solar panel may follow.
Read more: Has Tesla just killed nuclear power?