williams: shorting tesla's batteries - energy storage devices

Editor's note: This article was originally published at 3: 30. m.
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The company manager is obliged to deploy the appropriate technology.
They should avoid falling in love with a technology simply because it is interesting, convenient or in the public interest.
Mature companies such as General Electric (GE), Siemens (SI), Honeywell (HON)
Other people have technical management, others, such as Tesla Motors (TSLA)and SolarCity (SCTY)
There may be danger.
The problem is energy storage and batteries.
On last February, Tesla announced plans to build the world's largest lithium-
Ion battery factory
After hearing the news, investors flocked and the company's stock rose more than 50 points.
Tesla's announcement is a huge bet on a single technology.
To make matters worse, its $5 billion bet seems to be based on the assumption that no one can make a meaningful breakthrough in energy storage science.
It seems like a bad bet.
It turns out that the other side of Tesla's bet is piling up a lot of money.
Leading research institutions are investing heavily in new energy storage technologies.
The immediate threat to Tesla's battery concept is that a breakthrough has been announced.
Tesla's battery concept is lithium-centricion technology.
The technology stores energy by using chemical reactions to capture ions moving from one electrode to another. Lithium-
The ion battery has a huge storage capacity.
However, due to the chemicals involved, electricity can only get in and out so quickly, and some stored energy is lost in the process. Lithium-
The battery life of ion batteries is limited.
Their life expectancy is about 1,200 cycles at 80% emissions (
If the battery is less than 80%, the life of the battery will be longer).
Competitive Technology can reach 8,000 to 10,000 cycles. While lithium-
Ion prices are expected to drop by 50% and capital costs will be shared over 1,200 cycles.
In addition to deploying batteries in all of their devices
Tesla plans to use similar batteries in its sister electric vehicles (SolarCity)
Distributed utility system
In order to expand the manufacturing scale, Tesla needs additional business.
Unfortunately, this one. size-fits-
Tesla's bet seems to double all strategies. your-
Company strategy.
However, this is not just a bet on Tesla's future;
It is also betting on the future of SolarCity.
It's a terrible bet.
Top research intuition including MIT (MIT)
Stanford University, Argonne University and other universities have joined in.
They saw the prize.
Tesla's bet will never exist, and this is the same award.
It does exist, however.
Tesla announces commitment to lithium
Ion batteries, research institutes are announcing new technologies that are entering the stage of development.
An example is MIT.
Professor Joel Schindall and the website of the Energy Research Committee of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology completely bid farewell to the battery.
They recently announced that their research team has developed a new energy storage device.
It "has the potential to keep as much energy as possible as conventional batteries, but can be charged in seconds instead of hours, can last almost indefinitely, and doesn't mind the cold.
This device can prove to be the first economically viable alternative to today's batteries.
One day it will produce a practical
Electric vehicles and provide power storage that is critical to the use of intermittent energy such as solar and wind energy.
"On another coast, Stanford University has formed another impressive team.
They have set up a new battery and energy storage center, which they call the Joint Center for Energy Storage Research (JCESR).
The center will combine researchand-development (R&D)
Five energy firepower (DOE)
National Labs, five universities and four private companies designed to revolutionize battery technology.
Partners include Algon, Lawrence Berkeley, national laboratory of Pacific Northwest, Sandy and SLAC.
It includes Stanford University, University of Chicago, Northwestern University, University of Michigan, University of Illinois at Chicago and University of Illinois at Urbana. Champaign.
It also includes Johnson Control (JCI)
Application materials (AMAT)Dow Chemical (DOW)
Trust fund for clean energy.
There are other teams, like the City University of New York (CUNY)
Rensler Institute of Technology Energy Research, Georgia Institute of Technology innovative fuel cell and battery technology center, and Munster electrolytic Energy Technology Center, Germany.
It is a bold move for Tesla to bet on these institutions.
When you consider the possibility of a wave of new technologies coming up, it's even bolder.
Of course, Tesla and SolarCity can adopt these new technologies when they emerge.
But they will pay the price.
In addition, due to the need to replace tools, equipment and raw materials for new technologies, some of Tesla's initial $5 billion funds may be lost.
Tesla's stakes don't seem worth the risk to investors.
The benefits seem limited.
The disadvantages seem infinite. Tesla's risk-
The reward ratio seems to be out of balance.
SolarCity is less risky, but if it's locked into Tesla's battery deal, it doesn't seem to get any better in return.